The Foundation for Educational Choice has a new report today attempting to change the way we treat public pension plans. It essentially boils down to this: States themselves claim their pension funds covering teachers, principals, and other educators, are 78 percent funded, but the authors use different calculations based on what’s expected of private companies, derive another number and poof! the funding ratio drops to 60 percent. They then throw out the eye-boggling stat that states are actually $933 billion in the red due to unaccounted pension obligations.
Don’t believe it.
See, private pension funds are different than public ones, and they should be treated differently too. Private companies are required to contribute, on behalf of their defined benefit (DB) pension plans, to something called the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). The PBGC asks all employers with a DB plan to fully fund it so their future obligations are covered in case they ever go out of business or run out of money. When private employers fail to meet these obligations, they pay into the PBGC fund at higher levels. The PBGC can then compensate workers if their employer goes belly up. So when Enron, TransWorld Airlines (TWA), and Bethlehem Steel went bankrupt, their workers still earned some retirement benefits that had been promised them.
States, unlike private companies, do not fold under. Indiana, which according to the authors has a DB pension plan for teachers that is only 42% funded, is not likely to go out of business and take its workers down with it. The state of Indiana can assume a riskier investment return for its pension fund than an employer like those mentioned above or any other modern private firm (and, just for good measure, it’s worth pointing out that Indiana assumes only a 3 percent real rate of return).
All this is lost on the report’s authors, who would prefer states lower their assumptions on stock market returns from about 8 percent down to 6, the standard rate used by corporations in their calculations. This would mean telling a state like Pennsylvania, which has accumulated a 9.23 percent return in the stock market over the last 25 years (as of February 2010), that its 8 percent investment assumption is too high.
There are good reasons to consider changes in state pension plans, but this isn’t one of them. Expect more on this topic from Education Sector in the coming months.
Update: Stuart Buck, one of the co-authors of the study, responds here. Buck does two things wrong: One, he assumes that states are inherently bad actors willing to risk their pension money “gambling on a horse race.” That may be true in some cases, but the onus is on him to prove that all states are making such risky investment decisions, and thus need stricter rules on which they should be governed.
Two, he’s ignoring real world evidence. The document I link to above shows Pennsylvania has a 9.23 percent investment return over the last 25 years after one of the worst decades for investments on record. Buck can point to the fact that it’s down over the last five and a half years, but that’s clearly overshadowed by what’s happened in total. It seems reasonable to let a state assume what’s happened historically is likely to happen in the future. States and localities are afforded the long-term perspective, so they should be able to base their investment and interest assumptions on what’s happened over a very long horizon. The past doesn’t predict the future, but it shouldn’t be ignored either.






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On Feb. 5, the CEO of CalSTRS filed a report stating as follows:
QUOTE: If all the losses from 2008-09 were recognized, however, the
UAO would increase to about $78 billion and the funded ratio would decline to about 58 percent. Moreover, given existing assumptions around investment returns and contributions, the funded ratio will decline to 13 percent over the next 30 years, as indicated in the graph below.
He further stated that the only way to recover would be for CalSTRS to earn 10.7% per year for the next 30 years. He seemed fairly confident that no such thing is going to happen.
These alarming facts illustrate our point that pension plans weren’t properly preparing for the risk they were incurring.
California had a 7.91 percent return over the 25 year period ending in 2009 (i.e. pre-bounceback). I can’t find Nevada’s right now, but the reality is that public pension funds average more than one full percentage point better than individual investors perform in 401k plans.
It’s certainly one option to take all risk (and really, all returns) out of public pension plans, but then states and local governments would have to make annual payments that match demographic trends, which would make them linked to dependency ratios like Social Security is. They would also have no flexibility in any given year to modify their payments based on their revenue. That has some appeal, for sure, but it would certainly make things tougher on annual state budgets.
I guess I don’t understand why public pension plans should do *anything* more than pace inflation. Since if they invest unwisely the state will have to increase taxes, borrow more or default precisely because they cannot go out of business and there is no PBGC.
Yes, PA had some great returns, but I honestly don’t know if that is true in all states. How is California doing? Nevada? Not trying to be snarky, just confused on why a pension fund should be treated as an investment fund?
I don’t assume that states are “bad actors” in the sense of investing too riskily. That is just not the point of anything I’ve said at all. The point of the hypothetical is that when they do invest in assets that provide rates of return higher than guaranteed Treasury rates, they are necessarily incurring more risk in doing so. Incurring risk can be great. But you still have to account for it properly.
This argument about risk applies even if the average rate of return is indeed 8% now and in the future. Risk means that there’s a chance (usually a substantial chance) that the state won’t have enough money to meet its obligations in any given year. That money has to come from somewhere. So again, that’s why you have to account for it properly.
[...] at The Quick and Ed, Chad Aldeman has a response to our study: States, unlike private companies, do not fold under. Indiana, which according to the [...]