College basketball is the crown jewel of the NCAA. For three weekends in March and April, people across the country tune in to watch thrilling upsets, Cinderella stories, and big-time performances that will live in highlight reels for years to come. Unfortunately, the quality on the court is not matched by academic success off of it.
According to data released by the NCAA, the average six-year graduation rate of the 65 teams in this year’s field was just 46 percent. That’s 20 percentage points below the overall average graduation rate of the schools these teams represent. (Both figures exclude Cornell, which does not publish team-specific graduation rates.)
The fact is, 46 percent may be a good three-point shooting percentage, but academically, it’s embarrassing. Even worse, there are large gaps in the outcomes for white and black athletes. Among tournament teams, the average graduation rate for white athletes was 60 percent; for their black peers it was just 39 percent. Thirteen teams had a white graduation rate of 100 percent, only Wake Forest and Vermont posted similar figures for black athletes.
Some schools are failing their athletes regardless of race. Maryland and Houston’s first round matchup has the distinction of being the worst academic pairing in the tournament, as the two have basketball graduation rates of 9 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
Fortunately, the academic news is not all bad. Butler, for example, had a graduation rate of 89 percent—well above its overall school mark of 71 percent. Kansas, the tournament’s top overall seed, was the only team to post a perfect score of 1,000 on its academic progress rate, a measure kept by the NCAA that tracks if students are both enrolled and academically eligible.
So what would the tournament look like if we took academic characteristics into account? To help answer this question, I asked Education Sector’s Abdul Kargbo to help me put together different brackets that rank teams based upon the three major academic indicators used by the NCAA: federal graduation rates, graduation success rates, and academic progress rate. Abdul’s handiwork is presented after the jump, along with some interesting bits of information.
A Note on tiebreakers: A few games in the various brackets had opponents with identical scores. In those cases, tiebreakers were determined using a school’s overall graduation rate, which is denoted in parentheses.
Federal Graduation Rates
The only metric that also collected by the school overall, federal graduation rates reflect the percentage of first-time, full-time students that graduated from an institution within six years of enrolling. Because each team only has a few new players every season, the figures presented here are an average rate for the four classes of student-athletes that entered from 1999-2000 to the 2002-03 academic years.
With one obvious exception, determining winners by federal graduation rates produces a somewhat believable final four of Kansas, Butler, Villanova, and Wofford. The championship game would then feature Butler vs. Wofford, with the former prevailing thanks to a graduation rate of 89 percent vs. the latter’s 83 percent mark.
Here are a few quick hits about the bracket:
- Smartest Region: The West region has far and away the best average graduation rate at 57 percent. That’s 9 percentage points ahead of the South, which is the next best.
- Worst Region: The Midwest region performed poorly, posting an average graduation rate of just 41 percent. It’s the only region without a team at 80 percent or above.
- Best Combined Graduation Rate Matchup: Tied between Kansas vs. Lehigh and Purdue vs. Siena, which have an average graduation rate of 70 percent.
- Worst Combined Graduation Rate Matchup: Maryland vs. Houston with an average graduation rate of just 11 percent.
Graduation Success Rate
The Graduation Success Rate (GSR) is calculated by the NCAA and is designed to not punish schools for having players that leave early. As a result, players who transfer, dropout, or turn professional are not counted in the school’s rate so long as they are in good academic standing when they leave. Players who transfer in are counted as part of a school’s GSR.
Unlike federal grad rates, the GSR produces a pretty unlikely final four of Lehigh, Brigham Young, Wake Forest, and Notre Dame, which would win it all thanks to the tiebreaker. Because the GSR is a more forgiving measure than the federal figures, six schools had marks of 100 percent.
Here are a few quick hits about the bracket:
- Best Region: On average, the West region performs the best with a rate of 75 percent. But the East deserves notice too for being the only region with three teams at 100 percent.
- Worst Region: The West again comes up short, with an average rate of just 59 percent. It’s also the only region without a team with a 100 percent GSR.
- Best Combined GSR Matchup: Wofford vs. Wisconsin is the academic first-round showcase, with a combined average GSR of 89 percent.
- Worst Combined GSR Matchup: Maryland vs. Houston again comes up short with a combined GSR of just 50 and an average mark of 25 percent.
Academic Progress Rate
Another special measure created by the NCAA, the Academic Progress Rate (APR) provides the most up-to-date information about teams. Each athlete can earn up to two points for a team—one for being academically eligible to compete, the other for staying enrolled. The APR represents the total points earned by the team divided by the maximum possible points (for example, a basketball team with 13 players and no seniors would have a maximum score of 26). It is then multiplied by 1,000 to avoid decimals. Teams with an APR below 925 may face penalties and a loss of scholarships.
Using the APR would produce a final four of Kansas, Brigham Young, Texas, and Duke. Kansas would win the championship as it is the only school with a perfect score of 1,000 in the field. Nineteen schools, meanwhile have APRs below 925.
Here are some quick hits on the bracket:
- Best Region: At 951, the South has the best average APR, though the East and West are only a few points behind at 948 each.
- Worst Region: Despite the best combined matchup, the Midwest again comes up way short, with an average APR of just 931. That’s largely thanks to sub-900 figures posted by UC Santa Barbara and New Mexico State. In fact, New Mexico State’s APR of 848 is the worst in the field.
- Best Combined APR Matchup: Kansas vs. Lehigh. One has a perfect score, the other is six points away. The average of 997 is tops in the bracket.
- Worst Combined APR Matchup: Ohio State vs. UC Santa Barbara. The Buckeyes’ APR of 911 is not enough to make up for UC Santa Barbara’s 872. The result is the only first-round game with an average APR under 900.
Clearly picking games solely based on these academic measures is likely to result in a poor showing in the office pool. But these results show that academic performance and athletic achievement are not mutually exclusive. Elite teams such as Kansas, Villanova, and (as much as it pains me to say it) Duke have shown that their student-athletes do well both in the classroom and on the hardwood. On the other hand, places like Houston, New Mexico State, and (as much as it pains me to say it) Maryland, clearly have a lot more work to do.










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