The newly-released Sloan Consortium Report on online higher education finds that the number of college students taking at least one online course increased from 3.9 million in Fall 2007 to 4.6 million in Fall 2008, a 17 percent jump. The overall number of college students grew 1.2 percent during the same time. In 2002, less than 10 percent of students were taking an online class. Today, more than 25 percent do.
The report didn’t get a great deal of media attention, because the media has a terrible bias toward unpredictable short-term change. Coverage of the stock market is a perfect example. On any given day, nobody knows if the market will go up or down. So it’s always treated as news, along with various vague and largely-fabricated explanations, e.g. “Investors reacted to uncertainty over XYZ Uncertain Thing today by buying and/or selling stocks and bonds. Back to you in the studio, Brad!” Political news is much the same, with every momentary twist and turn treated as definitive proof that whomever is in power is either destined to rule for generations or is on the brink of total collapse. Nobody actually knows the truth, but it doesn’t stop people from drawing loud and confident inferences from often-random fluctuation.
Meanwhile, it’s pretty obvious that online courses are going to play an increasingly important role in higher education and that the Internet will have a profound impact on the academy as we have known it for many years. But since it’s no more or less obvious today than it was in 2009, or 2008, or 2007, or 2006, it doesn’t get a lot of notice. Steady, predictable long-term trends rule the world, but unsteady short-term variance captures all of our attention.
People working in traditional four-year liberal colleges and research universities may take exception to the “profound impact” part above, since online higher education thus far has been concentrated among community college students and adults seeking workforce-related and graduate degrees. But for a glimpse of where the market is going, look no further than this recent advertisement from Kaplan University:
It’s striking how direct and harsh a critique of traditional colleges and universities this is. “Steeped in tradition” is generally taken as a good thing in higher education, not grounds for denunciation. The Washington Post Company paid some advertising agency a lot of money to produce this commercial and hire Uncle Phil from Fresh Prince of Bel Air to star in it. This is not an ad from a company that’s interested in nibbling around the edges of the gigantic market for traditional college degrees. They appear to be aiming right at the heart of it, and the Sloan report numbers indicate that they and others like them are becoming more and more successful over time.
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5/11/2012 | Kevin Carey talks to Salon about the government's role in rising student debt.
5/8/2012 | Kevin Carey discusses the problem of rising tuition and student loan interest rates with The Nation. 
5/4/2012 | Stephen Burd talks to Education Week about student loan debt and help from Congress.
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