The 2009 state NAEP math results were released today, and they’re disappointing. Fourth grade scores, which have been a great and under-recognized success story over the last two decades, were flat. Eighth grade scores rose slightly. What to conclude? Most broadly, that most of the claims about national education policy, pro and con, have been overwrought.

Supporters of the No Child Left Behind Act–and I’ve generally been one of them–hoped that the law would catalyze a major upward move in student achievement. That hasn’t happened. Perhaps it’s because every state got to choose its own standards; perhaps it’s because the law did little to get better teachers in classrooms; perhaps it’s because yawning revenue disparities between and within states were largely unaddressed. Whatever was missing, something was missing, probably many things, and the next version of ESEA will need significant changes if we want to achieve more than just more of the same.

On the other hand, there’s no evidence in the NAEP results that NCLB is wreaking havoc and ruin in the nation’s classrooms, either. Nor does it support those who think the education system never gets better and/or is in a long decline. These are the average scale scores in 8th grade math, starting in 1990 and proceeding through the subsequent seven test administrations: 263, 268, 270, 273, 278, 279, 281, 283. 4th grade scores have also increased steadily; this was the first year without any improvement. In 1990, 50 percent of 4th graders scored at the lowest, “Below Basic” level in Math.  In 2009 that amount held steady at 18 percent. That’s real progress.

As is always the case, the most intriguing NAEP results come from comparing similar student populations in different states to one another. As the Education Trust noted, “Among low-income fourth graders, Florida’s proficiency rate (29 percent) is nearly twice Arizona’s (15 percent).” Differences of that degree confound the economic determinists who believe that schools and education policies are overwhelmed by demographics.

Ultimately, the NAEP results are a reminder that the American education system remains massive, decentralized, and not long removed from the time when all education was local and schools were the vehicle of choice for state-sponsored racism. Improvement won’t be instantaneous. At least, we’re headed the right way.